A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
